Saturday, August 02, 2008

And now you must go into the forest and cut down the largest tree with ... a herring!

Who will win the National League Central?

The Cardinals have 50 games left and they are presently 4 games behind the Cubs for 1st place.

Of those 50 games:
Home games = 25
Away games = 25

Games against teams that are .500 or better = 20
Games against teams that are sub .500 = 30

Home games vs. .500+ = 10
Home games vs. sub .500 = 15

Away games vs. .500+ = 10
Away games vs. sub .500 = 15

Cardinals Home record = 31-25
Cardinals Away record = 31-25

If the Cardinals kept those winning percentages ...
Remaining home games = 14-11
Remaining away games = 14-11
Going 28-22 in their last 52 games,
finishing 90-76.
(I think they will need at least 93 to win the division.)

The Cubs remaining 52 games:
Home games = 27
Away games = 25

Games against teams that are .500 or better = 28
Games against teams that are sub .500 = 24

Home games vs. .500+ = 15
Home games vs. sub .500 = 12

Away games vs. .500+ = 13
Away games vs. sub .500 = 12

Cubs Home record = 39-15
Cubs Away record = 26-30

If the Cubs kept those winning percentages ...
Remaining home games = 19-8
Remaining away games = 11-14
Going 30-22 in their last 52 games,
finishing 95-67. (5 games ahead)

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals are 5-5. That will not do.

The Cardinals have 9 games left with the Cubs (6 away, 3 home). The percentages would say the Cardinals go 4-5 in those games, thereby losing a game in the standings. I contend that the Cardinals must go 6-3 (thereby gaining 3 games) to have a chance to win the division.

That will not be easy, even if the schedule slightly favors the Cardinals. In fact, it might be easier to cut down the largest tree in the forest with ... a herring.

Labels: ,


At 04 August, 2008 10:19, Blogger Rev. said...

Even if we don't win the division, we're looking good for the Wild Card. All we hafta do is make the play-offs!

At 04 August, 2008 10:27, Blogger GUNNY said...

After 2 Cubs wins and 2 Cardinals losses since this post, I'm thinking that Wild Card is starting to look quite appealing.


At 04 August, 2008 15:44, Blogger GUNNY said...

Despite this: "Cardinals' league-best 31-25 mark away from home."

"The Cardinals' bullpen is tied for the major league worst with 24 losses and has a major league-high 26 blown saves."

At 04 August, 2008 18:08, Blogger Jade said...

Who cars about the Cards! Did you see Sunday's game of the Yankees vs the Angels?! :ob What a game! Hey don't rule out the Yankees for the wildcard!

At 04 August, 2008 18:22, Blogger Jade said...

In case you need to see a summary of that game in video. :ob

Kind of funny to hear everyone gripping about Manny (good and bad of getting rid of him). Yet you see how he's performing in LA. Hmmmmm...

At 04 August, 2008 21:19, Blogger GUNNY said...

Manny's an interesting character, but I think he could have provided some nice protection behind Pujols.

Did you see the moves the Cardinals made prior to the trade deadline?

Yeah, nobody did, because they did Jack Squat.


At 05 August, 2008 15:55, Blogger Oilcan said...

Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

At 05 August, 2008 17:08, Blogger Jade said...

Isn't Oilcan a member at your church Gunny? So are you going to revoke his membership because he's a cubs fan? Hahahaha... :ob

At 05 August, 2008 22:05, Blogger GUNNY said...


Don't let Oilcan know, but he's on Double Secret Probation at Providence Church.

Since he's a fan of the Cowboys and Aggies (and hates the Redskins, Eagles, Patriots, Longhorns, and disAstros & Red Sox) he's been able to hang on by a thread. However, should the Cubs win the division, he'll really be pushing it.


Post a Comment

<< Home

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting